最近对足彩的数据进行了一点分析，简单分享一下自己的一点收获，
对于足球比赛的赔率还是很有计算方法的。我收集了一些比赛的数据，进行了简单的分析。创建了一个表为data.
然后对于即将开始的比赛，进行胜负平的赔率计算，
简单的shell脚本实现如下：
sqlplus -s n1/n1
set serveroutput on
set linesize 200
set pages 50
set feedback on
col w format a10
col t format a10
col l format a10
col rw format a10
col rt format a10
col rl format a10
col diff_sum format 9.99
prompt --- win
prompt -- big win
select zu,ke,r,w||'('||(w-$1)||')' w,t||'('||(t-$2)||')' t,l||'('||(l-$3)||')' l,rw||'('||(rw-$4)||')' rw,rt||'('||(rt-$5)||')' rt,rl||'('||(rl-$6)||')' rl,abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6) diff_sum from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and rke+1 ;
prompt -- little win
select zu,ke,r,w||'('||(w-$1)||')' w,t||'('||(t-$2)||')' t,l||'('||(l-$3)||')' l,rw||'('||(rw-$4)||')' rw,rt||'('||(rt-$5)||')' rt,rl||'('||(rl-$6)||')' rl,
abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6) diff_sum from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and r
prompt .
prompt ---tie
select zu,ke,r,w||'('||(w-$1)||')' w,t||'('||(t-$2)||')' t,l||'('||(l-$3)||')' l,rw||'('||(rw-$4)||')' rw,rt||'('||(rt-$5)||')' rt,rl||'('||(rl-$6)||')' rl ,abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6) diff_sum from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and r
prompt .
prompt --- big lose
select zu,ke,r,w||'('||(w-$1)||')' w,t||'('||(t-$2)||')' t,l||'('||(l-$3)||')' l,rw||'('||(rw-$4)||')' rw,rt||'('||(rt-$5)||')' rt,rl||'('||(rl-$6)||')' rl ,abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6) diff_sum from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and rzu+1;
prompt --- little lose
select zu,ke,r,w||'('||(w-$1)||')' w,t||'('||(t-$2)||')' t,l||'('||(l-$3)||')' l,rw||'('||(rw-$4)||')' rw,rt||'('||(rt-$5)||')' rt,rl||'('||(rl-$6)||')' rl ,abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6) diff_sum from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and r
set feedback off
declare
big_win number;
little_win number;
tie number;
big_lose number;
little_lose number;
total_cnt number;
begin
select count(*) cnt into big_win from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and rke+1 and (abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6))
select count(*) cnt into little_win from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and
rl=$6-0.2 and r
select count(*) cnt into tie from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and
rl=$6-0.2 and r
select count(*) cnt into big_lose from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and
rl=$6-0.2 and rzu+1 and (abs(w-$1)+abs(t-$2)+abs(l-$3)+abs(rw-$4)+abs(rt-$5)+abs(rl-$6))
select count(*) cnt into little_lose from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and
rl=$6-0.2 and r
select count(*) cnt into total_cnt from data where w=$1-0.2 and l=$3-0.2 and rw=$4-0.2 and rl=$6-0.2 and r
dbms_output.put_line('big win :'||big_win||' of total:'||total_cnt||' percentage:'||round(big_win/total_cnt,2)*100||'%'||' ratio:'||to_number($1+$4));
dbms_output.put_line('little win :'||little_win||' of total:'||total_cnt||' percentage:'||round(little_win/total_cnt,2)*100||'%'||' ratio:'||to_number($1+$5));
dbms_output.put_line('tie :'||tie||' of total:'||total_cnt||' percentage:'||round(tie/total_cnt,2)*100||'%'||' ratio:'||to_number($2+$6));
dbms_output.put_line('big lose win:'||big_lose||' of total:'||total_cnt||' percentage:'||round(big_lose/total_cnt,2)*100||'%'||' ratio:'||to_number($3+$6));
dbms_output.put_line('little lose :'||little_lose||' of total:'||total_cnt||' percentage:'||round(little_lose/total_cnt,2)*100||'%'||' ratio:'||to_number($3+$6));
end;
/
EOF
来简单的做两个测试。如果一场比赛赔率如下，那么有50%的可能性为胜，17%的概率为平，33%的概率为负。：）
1.91 3.5 3.2 3.85 3.65 1.68
.
big win :8 of total:30 percentage:27% ratio:5.76
little win :7 of total:30 percentage:23% ratio:5.56
tie :5 of total:30 percentage:17% ratio:5.18
big lose win:3 of total:30 percentage:10% ratio:4.88
little lose :7 of total:30 percentage:23% ratio:4.88
--END
再来一场比赛
2.35 3.45 2.45 5.1 4.1 1.45
.
big win :3 of total:19 percentage:16% ratio:7.45
little win :3 of total:19 percentage:16% ratio:6.45
tie :5 of total:19 percentage:26% ratio:4.9
big lose win:2 of total:19 percentage:11% ratio:3.9
little lose :6 of total:19 percentage:32% ratio:3.9
--END